Subjective probability definition

What is Subjective Probability?

Subjective probability is one's personal belief that an event will occur, stated numerically. This probability is based on the past experience or intuition of the individual; it is not based on underlying data. There can be a large amount of personal bias built into the resulting estimates, to the extent that a statement of subjective probability is more likely to vary significantly from the actual outcome. There can be a large amount of variation in the subjective probabilities issued by different people.

Example of Subjective Probability

As an example of subjective probability, a football fan states that his favorite team has a 60% chance of winning the league championship this year.

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